Egyptair Flight Crashed in Critical New Air Corridor Created by War Zones

It's unclear what brought down the flight, but threats in Europe and the Middle East forced it into a crowded area already.

The world’s airlines will be concerned not only to know what brought down EgyptAir Flight MS804 over the eastern Mediterranean on Thursday but about the implications it may have for what has become one of the most densely trafficked airline routes in the world.

And, ironically, the reason why this is such a crucial corridor in the sky for international flights is a consequence of the impact on airline route planning of war zones and concerns over the safety of air space in eastern Europe and the Middle East.

Following the downing by a missile of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 over Ukraine in July 2014 that part of eastern Europe was – belatedly – defined as a war zone. The main airline routes between Europe, the Middle East and Asia were then diverted south to fly over Romania, Greece, Turkey and across the eastern Mediterranean into Egyptian air space.

As a result these long-haul flights were added to air space already thick with jets flying tourist traffic between European cities and the eastern Mediterranean, like the Egyptair flight from Paris to Cairo.

The corridor became even more crowded after the crash of the Russian Metrojetwhile flying over the Sinai last October, when the Sinai air space was also ruled too dangerous for commercial flights. This had the effect of pushing a lot more intercontinental flights further south, flying eastbound and westbound across Cairo, the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia, and Dubai (Dubai is now a major hub for flights between Europe, Africa and Asia.)

The first concern about the safety of this route would be about threats flying over land – either from a shoulder-fired missile, MANPAD, or the sophisticated Russian anti-aircraft missile that brought down Flight MH17 over Ukraine.

Given that the Egyptian Airbus disappeared while flying over water this would seem to remove both those threats. In theory, the most proximate threat from land would have been from ISIS-related groups operating in eastern Libya but unless they were able to cross into Egypt they would be way too far out of range.

If the Egyptian flight was brought down by a bomb, either planted in the cabin or in baggage, then the issue becomes one of timing: Why was it timed to detonate while the jet was in this particular piece of airspace? Was it because the retrieval of wreckage and, particularly, of the flight data recorders, is far more difficult with a plunge into the sea than – as in the case of Flight MH17 – when the airplane falls in plain sight over land